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Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette Carries
Player Prop Week 6

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Leonard Fournette Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-109/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -137 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buccaneers are a big 9.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to notch 17.1 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among RBs.

The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a less important option in his team's running game this week (67.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (79.3% in games he has played).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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