Leonard Fournette Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+110/-151).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -151.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a massive 10-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to accrue 17.3 carries in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers rank as the 8th-worst LB corps in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 5th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be much less involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (68.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (82.2% in games he has played).

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