Leonard Fournette Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 8:25 PM EST

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-130/-100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 65.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to notch 17.1 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
Leonard Fournette has been much more involved in his offense's run game this season (81.8% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (66.0%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the 6th-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

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