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Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette Carries
Player Prop Week 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys

Leonard Fournette Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 143.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.

The Dallas Cowboys defensive tackles rank as the worst unit in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 31.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a much smaller part of his offense's running game this week (42.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.4% in games he has played).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in run blocking.

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