Leonard Fournette Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 33.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to call the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a much smaller piece of his offense's run game this week (48.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (62.0% in games he has played).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.

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