Leonard Fournette Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Leonard Fournette

NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carries

Arizona Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-122/-108).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 70.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 63.8 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 33.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game this week (41.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (61.4% in games he has played).
The Arizona Cardinals safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in the league this year in regard to run defense.

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