Leonard Fournette Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Leonard Fournette

RB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carries

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Leonard Fournette Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+100/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 62.9 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 34.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be much less involved in his offense's run game this week (44.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (66.0% in games he has played).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends rank as the 7th-best DE corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.