Laviska Shenault Jr. Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Laviska Shenault Jr.

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Laviska Shenault Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.48 seconds per play.
Laviska Shenault has been among the top wideouts in the league at generating extra yardage, averaging a terrific 7.45 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 97th percentile.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has allowed the 10th-highest Completion% in the NFL (67.5%) to WRs since the start of last season (67.5%).
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has not been good when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 7.63 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in the league.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Laviska Shenault to be much less involved in his offense's pass attack this week (8.2% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (18.1% in games he has played).
The Carolina Panthers offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Laviska Shenault has been among the least effective pass-catchers in football, averaging a mere 6.73 yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 8th percentile among WRs