Latavius Murray Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Latavius Murray's running efficiency (4.57 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (79th percentile when it comes to running backs).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bills to be the 3rd-least run-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 32.4% run rate.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
Latavius Murray has been a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack this season (20.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (52.1%).
As it relates to run support (and the influence it has on all ground game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 7th-worst in the league last year.
Latavius Murray has rushed for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (24.0) this season than he did last season (55.0).

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