Latavius Murray Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 3:31 AM EST

Analysis

Latavius Murray Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Latavius Murray's rushing effectiveness (4.45 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (76th percentile when it comes to running backs).
This year, the strong Chiefs run defense has given up a paltry 4.63 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing offenses: the 23rd-lowest rate in football.
The Chiefs safeties profile as the 29th-worst safety corps in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 5th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 38.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
To the extent of a defense's effect on pace, at 28.97 seconds per play, the model projects the Bills as the slowest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.
After accounting for 52.1% of his offense's rush attempts last year, Latavius Murray has had a smaller role in the run game this year, currently sitting at just 21.1%.
The Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league last year at opening holes for runners.
Latavius Murray's 26.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year reflects a significant reduction in his rushing talent over last year's 55.0 mark.

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