Latavius Murray Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Latavius Murray's running effectiveness (4.61 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (82nd percentile when it comes to running backs).

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bills to run on 38.7% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
In terms of a defense's influence on pace, at 29.17 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Bills to be the most sluggish in football (context-neutralized) at the present time.
Latavius Murray has been a much smaller part of his team's run game this season (20.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (52.1%).
When talking about run-blocking (and the importance it has on all ground game statistics), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the 9th-worst in football last year.
Latavius Murray's 26.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year conveys a noteworthy drop-off in his running proficiency over last year's 55.0 mark.

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