Latavius Murray Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
Latavius Murray's rushing effectiveness (4.77 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (84th percentile when it comes to running backs).
This year, the feeble New York Jets run defense has yielded a monstrous 135.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 6th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bills to be the 4th-least run-centric team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 32.0% run rate.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (only 55.6 per game on average).
After accounting for 52.1% of his team's run game usage last season, Latavius Murray has had a smaller role in the rushing attack this season, now accounting for only 21.1%.
The Buffalo offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league last year at executing run-blocking assingments.

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