Latavius Murray Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
This year, the deficient Broncos run defense has conceded a staggering 156.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the NFL.
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 31st-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 40.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 61.0 total plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
Latavius Murray has been a much smaller piece of his team's running game this season (19.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (52.1%).
In regards to blocking for rushers (and the impact it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the worst in the NFL last year.
Latavius Murray has rushed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (19.0) this year than he did last year (55.0).

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