Latavius Murray Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 56.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 55.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to total 15.9 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
Latavius Murray has been a more integral piece of his offense's run game this season (56.6% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (33.5%).
Latavius Murray has rushed for many more yards per game (52.0) this year than he did last year (37.0).

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Latavius Murray's rushing efficiency (4.00 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (24th percentile among running backs).
The Denver Broncos have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on just 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.