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Latavius Murray

Latavius Murray Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Latavius Murray Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 56.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 55.5 @ -104.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to total 15.9 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
  • Latavius Murray has been a more integral piece of his offense's run game this season (56.6% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (33.5%).
  • Latavius Murray has rushed for many more yards per game (52.0) this year than he did last year (37.0).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Latavius Murray's rushing efficiency (4.00 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (24th percentile among running backs).
  • The Denver Broncos have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on just 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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