Latavius Murray Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-103/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 47.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 41.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to notch 14.1 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among RBs.
Latavius Murray has been much more involved in his team's run game this season (57.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (33.5%).
Latavius Murray has run for quite a few more yards per game (52.0) this year than he did last year (37.0).
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends profile as the 3rd-worst group of DEs in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 35.7% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Latavius Murray's ground effectiveness (4.00 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (24th percentile among running backs).

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