Latavius Murray Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 48.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 51.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to accumulate 17.1 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among RBs.
Latavius Murray has been a more important option in his team's run game this season (53.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (33.5%).
The Arizona Cardinals defense owns the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding 5.20 yards-per-carry.
The Arizona Cardinals linebackers rank as the worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will be forced to use backup QB Brett Rypien this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Broncos rank as the 10th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 38.0% run rate.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Latavius Murray's running effectiveness (3.73 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (18th percentile among running backs).

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