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Latavius Murray

Latavius Murray Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 8

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos

Latavius Murray Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+243/-391).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -360 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -391.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.0 plays per game.

Latavius Murray has been given 39.1% of his offense's red zone carries since the start of last season, ranking him in the 79th percentile among RBs.

Latavius Murray has rushed for 0.47 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (89th percentile).

Opposing offenses have rushed for the 10th-most TDs in the league (1.00 per game) vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 7th-least run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 40.1% red zone run rate.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best DT corps in football this year with their run defense.

The Denver Broncos have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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