Latavius Murray Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing TD

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:56 PM EST

Analysis

Latavius Murray Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+286/-472).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -299 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -472.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.56 seconds per snap.
Latavius Murray has been given 37.1% of his team's red zone carries since the start of last season, ranking in the 75th percentile among running backs.
The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
Latavius Murray has run for 0.44 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest marks in football among RBs (88th percentile).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-most TDs in the NFL (1.17 per game) versus the New York Jets defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 9th-least run-centric team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 40.5% red zone run rate.
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.