Latavius Murray Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing TD

Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Latavius Murray Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+167/-242).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +176 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to be a more integral piece of his team's run game near the end zone this week (66.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (42.1% in games he has played).
Latavius Murray has run for 0.44 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (85th percentile).
Opposing offenses have run for the 9th-most touchdowns in football (1.08 per game) versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year.
The Arizona Cardinals linebackers rank as the worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

The Broncos rank as the 8th-least run-centric team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 38.5% red zone run rate.
The Denver Broncos have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on just 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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