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Latavius Murray

Latavius Murray Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 13

Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Latavius Murray Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-328).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -257 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -328.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Denver Broncos have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
  • THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (75.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (44.4% in games he has played).
  • Latavius Murray has rushed for 0.57 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (89th percentile).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Broncos are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Baltimore Ravens defensive tackles profile as the 7th-best unit in football this year in regard to run defense.
  • The Denver Broncos have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box against opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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