Latavius Murray Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Denver Broncos · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Latavius Murray Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-328).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -257 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -328.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (75.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (44.4% in games he has played).
Latavius Murray has rushed for 0.57 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (89th percentile).

Favors Under

The Broncos are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive tackles profile as the 7th-best unit in football this year in regard to run defense.
The Denver Broncos have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box against opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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