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Latavius Murray

Latavius Murray Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 12

Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos

Latavius Murray Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+143/-196).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -173 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -196.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.04 seconds per snap.

THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (71.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.0% in games he has played).

Latavius Murray has run for 0.67 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (92nd percentile).

Opposing teams have rushed for the 7th-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.18 per game) against the Carolina Panthers defense this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Carolina Panthers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in football this year in regard to defending the run.

The Denver Broncos have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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