Latavius Murray Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing TD

Tennessee Titans vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+259/-428).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +261 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +259.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Latavius Murray has been given 41.7% of his team's red zone carries this year, putting him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
Latavius Murray has run for 0.75 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among RBs (95th percentile).
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 10th-least run-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 41.1% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have run for the least TDs in the league (0.25 per game) versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best DE corps in the NFL this year with their run defense.
The Denver Broncos have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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