Latavius Murray Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+155/-200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 68.9% pass rate.
Latavius Murray has been a much smaller piece of his team's offense this season, staying in the game for just 33.9% of snaps compared to 52.3% last season.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 6th-best in football this year.
Latavius Murray's play as a receiver has been refined this year, averaging 1.2 adjusted receptions vs a measly 0.1 last year.
This year, the poor Denver Broncos pass defense has been torched for a whopping 84.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the biggest rate in football.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Buffalo Bills are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 61.0 total plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: fewest in football.

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