Latavius Murray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 6:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-130/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.6% pass rate.
The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Latavius Murray has notched many more adjusted receiving yards per game (9.0) this year than he did last year (1.0).
Latavius Murray grades out as one of the best running backs in the league at generating extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a terrific 12.57 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 87th percentile.
The New England Patriots pass defense has allowed the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (94.7%) to running backs this year (94.7%).

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
Latavius Murray has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (27.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (38.3%).
This year, the daunting Patriots pass defense has allowed the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing running backs: a paltry 6.1 YAC.

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