Latavius Murray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Latavius Murray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-105/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in football (67.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Buffalo Bills.
The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.3 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
Latavius Murray's 36.0% snap rate this season marks a noteworthy diminishment in his offensive workload over last season's 52.3% mark.
In regards to air yards, Latavius Murray grades out in the lofty 88th percentile among RBs this year, averaging a colossal 2.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
In regards to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has given up the 6th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 26.0) to running backs this year.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (77%) versus RBs this year (77.0%).
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Dallas's group of LBs has been fantastic this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.

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