Latavius Murray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Denver Broncos · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 12:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.0 plays per game.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded the 7th-most receiving yards per game in football (43.0) versus running backs this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (85.2%) vs. RBs this year (85.2%).

Favors Under

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Latavius Murray has notched a measly -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 10th percentile among RBs.
Latavius Murray's 4.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the worst in the league: 24th percentile for running backs.
Latavius Murray has been among the weakest RB receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging just 5.0 yards per game while checking in at the 21st percentile among RBs.
Latavius Murray has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the league among RBs, averaging just 0.89 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 2nd percentile.

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