Latavius Murray Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+108/-144).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -144.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will be forced to use backup QB Brett Rypien this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Broncos have been the 10th-most pass-centric team in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

Latavius Murray has accumulated a measly -5.0 air yards per game this year: just 5th percentile among RBs.
Latavius Murray has notched quite a few less receiving yards per game (1.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).
The Arizona Cardinals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on just 3.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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