Latavius Murray Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Latavius Murray

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Buffalo Bills

Carries

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 1:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bills to be the 3rd-least run-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 32.4% run rate.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
Latavius Murray has been a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack this season (20.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (52.1%).
As it relates to run support (and the influence it has on all ground game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 7th-worst in the league last year.
The New England Patriots safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

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