Latavius Murray Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Latavius Murray

RB · Denver Broncos

Carries

Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Latavius Murray Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.04 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to garner 16.8 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Latavius Murray to be a much bigger part of his offense's run game this week (60.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (49.0% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Carolina Panthers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in football this year in regard to defending the run.
The Denver Broncos have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.