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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+140/-182).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -180 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -182.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Ravens are predicted by the predictive model to run 65.7 total plays in this game: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.

When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Baltimore Ravens profiles as the 5th-best in football this year.

Lamar Jackson ranks as one of the most on-target passers in football this year with a remarkable 69.0% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 84th percentile.

Lamar Jackson has been one of the leading touchdown throwers in football this year, averaging an impressive 2.14 per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.

The Cleveland cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst group of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 4-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on running than their usual approach.

The leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 47.6% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 52.6% red zone pass rate.

Our trusted projections expect Lamar Jackson to attempt 28.5 passes in this week's game, on average: the 3rd-fewest among all quarterbacks.

Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.6 per game) this year.

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