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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+136/-178).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -178.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Baltimore O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Since the start of last season, the porous Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered a massive 72.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 8th-worst rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Ravens being a 3-point favorite this week.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 48.5% of their chances: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The leading projections forecast the Ravens to be the 8th-least pass-centric team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 50.0% red zone pass rate.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to see just 123.0 offensive plays run: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.

The leading projections forecast Lamar Jackson to attempt 27.9 passes in this game, on balance: the 4th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

More Lamar Jackson Player Props

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