Lamar Jackson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

TD Passes

Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2024

Updated Sep 22, 2024 8:07 PM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens rank as the 7th-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 64.7% red zone pass rate.
The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 132.2 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Ravens grades out as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season.
When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Dallas's safety corps has been atrocious since the start of last season, grading out as the 7th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 54.4% of their chances: the 7th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect Lamar Jackson to throw 31.8 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 9th-fewest among all QBs.
Opposing QBs teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.3 per game) since the start of last season.
Lamar Jackson's throwing precision has diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 68.1% to 63.8%.
Since the start of last season, the tough Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered a paltry 64.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.