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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 20

Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +106 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Lamar Jackson has been one of the top touchdown passers in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 2.39 per game while ranking in the 98th percentile.

This year, the shaky Buffalo Bills defense has given up a massive 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the biggest rate in the league.

When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Buffalo's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 49.1% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.

At the moment, the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (50.7% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Ravens.

Our trusted projections expect Lamar Jackson to throw 29.7 passes in this game, on balance: the 2nd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

More Lamar Jackson Player Props

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