Lamar Jackson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

TD Passes

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 19, 2024

Updated Jan 12, 2025 12:31 AM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -133 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Lamar Jackson has been one of the top touchdown passers in football this year, averaging a remarkable 2.41 per game while grading out in the 98th percentile.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Pittsburgh's group of CBs has been lousy this year, profiling as the worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

This game's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Ravens, who are a heavy favorite by 9.5 points.
The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Ravens to be the 6th-least pass-focused team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 51.0% red zone pass rate.
The Baltimore Ravens have called the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 56.5 plays per game.
The predictive model expects Lamar Jackson to throw 29.3 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 3rd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.

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