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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-190/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -190.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.

With an outstanding 68.6% Adjusted Completion% (76th percentile) this year, Lamar Jackson rates as one of the most on-target passers in the NFL.

With a terrific rate of 2.43 per game (97th percentile), Lamar Jackson rates as one of the top touchdown throwers in the NFL this year.

The Texans defense has allowed the most TDs through the air in football: 1.93 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is suggested by the Ravens being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game.

The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Ravens to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 51.6% red zone pass rate.

Our trusted projections expect this game to chug along at the 11th-slowest tempo on the slate this week, averaging 26.55 seconds per play based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The leading projections forecast Lamar Jackson to throw 30.8 passes in this game, on balance: the 3rd-fewest out of all QBs.

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