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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+154/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +154 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +154.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Ravens will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The projections expect the Ravens to run the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Lamar Jackson's 74.8% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a a noteworthy boost in his passing accuracy over last season's 62.9% figure.

This year, the porous Steelers defense has conceded a colossal 2.00 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 4th-biggest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 4.5 points.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 48.7% of their plays: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.

In this game, Lamar Jackson is anticipated by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 4th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 29.7.

This year, the tough Pittsburgh Steelers defense has surrendered a feeble 63.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 4th-best rate in the league.

As it relates to linebackers getting after the quarterback, Pittsburgh's unit has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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