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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+172/-225).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +172 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +172.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Lamar Jackson's passing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 62.9% to 73.7%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast Lamar Jackson to attempt 30.8 passes in this week's game, on average: the 5th-fewest of all QBs.

Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in football.

Since the start of last season, the daunting Browns defense has surrendered a paltry 65.7% Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.

The Browns defense has yielded the 4th-fewest touchdowns through the air in football: 1.05 per game since the start of last season.

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