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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 21

Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +141 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the projection model to have 133.4 plays on offense run: the highest number among all games this week.

The Baltimore Ravens O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Lamar Jackson's 68.3% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a noteworthy boost in his passing accuracy over last season's 62.9% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is implied by the Ravens being a 4.5-point favorite this week.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 50.1% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to be the least pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 53.4% red zone pass rate.

Our trusted projections expect Lamar Jackson to throw 31.2 passes in this week's game, on average: the fewest out of all QBs.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Chiefs, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 27.2 per game) this year.

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