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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-175).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Ravens are predicted by the projections to call 66.1 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.

When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Baltimore Ravens grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.

Lamar Jackson's passing precision has been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 62.9% to 67.2%.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in the NFL against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (72.9% Adjusted Completion%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.

Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens as the 8th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 54.1% red zone pass rate.

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Miami's group of safeties has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

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