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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

San Francisco 49ers vs Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Ravens are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.

Opposing offenses have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game versus the 49ers defense this year: 4th-most in football.

The Ravens O-line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Lamar Jackson's 67.4% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a remarkable growth in his throwing precision over last year's 62.9% figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Ravens to be the 10th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 57.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Ravens to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 53.7% red zone pass rate.

The model projects the Ravens to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

In this week's game, Lamar Jackson is anticipated by our trusted projection set to average the 7th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 32.5.

This year, the imposing 49ers defense has surrendered a paltry 1.07 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-best rate in football.

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