Lamar Jackson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

TD Passes

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+115/-149).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +139 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
The Ravens O-line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Lamar Jackson's 67.7% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a material improvement in his passing accuracy over last season's 62.9% mark.
This year, the weak Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded a whopping 1.62 passing TDs per game to opposing teams: the 5th-largest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 4 points.
The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Ravens to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 53.5% red zone pass rate.
The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.09 seconds per play.
In this week's game, Lamar Jackson is predicted by the projection model to have the 3rd-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 30.2.

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