Lamar Jackson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

TD Passes

Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+124/-166).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Houston Texans linebackers project as the worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a big 9.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 31.1 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in football against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season (68.4%).

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