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Lamar Jackson
NFL · Player Props
Lamar Jackson
QB · Baltimore Ravens
TD Passes
Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans · Week 1, 2023 Updated Sep 11, 2023 3:01 AM UTC
NFL Props Lamar Jackson TD Passes

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+124/-166).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -166.

Favors Over
  • The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • The Houston Texans linebackers project as the worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Favors Under
  • The Ravens are a big 9.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 31.1 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in football against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season (68.4%).
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