Lamar Jackson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

TD Passes

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Lamar Jackson has been among the best TD throwers in football this year, averaging a stellar 2.17 per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.
The Cleveland Browns safeties rank as the 3rd-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Baltimore Ravens have utilized play action on 29.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-most in football), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 53.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 32.1 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 6th-least of all QBs.

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