Lamar Jackson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens have called the most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 67.3 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have used play action on 29.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-least pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 54.7% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 117.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to attempt 27.8 passes in this week's contest, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in football.