Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM EST

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 44.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 5.5 points.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to run on 49.8% of their chances: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
In this week's contest, Lamar Jackson is expected by the projection model to garner the most carries among all QBs with 9.9.
Lamar Jackson isn't afraid to run the ball, comprising 29.2% of his offense's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 98th percentile among QBs.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
At the moment, the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Ravens.
Lamar Jackson's 52.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year signifies a noteable regression in his rushing talent over last year's 66.0 figure.
Lamar Jackson's 5.89 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year illustrates a meaningful regression in his running proficiency over last year's 7.94 mark.
This year, the anemic Seahawks run defense has allowed a staggering 3.51 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing run game: the 31st-worst rate in the league.

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