Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (+112/-148).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 47.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a huge favorite this week, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard approach.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to run on 48.2% of their downs: the 2nd-highest clip among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect Lamar Jackson to notch 9.6 rush attempts this week, on average: the 2nd-most out of all quarterbacks.
Accounting for 31.2% of his offense's rush attempts this year (100th percentile among quarterbacks), Lamar Jackson's mobility marks him as a serious threat as a ball-carrier.
The opposing side have run for the 8th-most adjusted yards in the league (135 per game) against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Ravens offensive blueprint to lean 3.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
The model projects the Ravens offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.13 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Lamar Jackson has rushed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (56.0) this season than he did last season (66.0).
Lamar Jackson's rushing effectiveness has declined this year, averaging a measly 5.98 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 7.94 mark last year.

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