Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-114/-114).

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored this week, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to run on 48.2% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect Lamar Jackson to garner 9.3 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most out of all QBs.
Lamar Jackson isn't afraid to run the ball, taking on 29.7% of his offense's rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile among quarterbacks.
With an exceptional rate of 3.17 yards-after-contact (85th percentile), Lamar Jackson places among the top running QBs in football this year.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.2 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
Lamar Jackson's 55.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year represents a a material drop-off in his running talent over last year's 66.0 rate.
Lamar Jackson's running efficiency has tailed off this season, compiling just 5.97 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 7.94 rate last season.
This year, the anemic Tennessee Titans run defense has surrendered a massive 3.89 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition's running game: the 22nd-biggest rate in the NFL.