Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-105/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's spread implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 4.5 points.
The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Ravens to run the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect Lamar Jackson to earn 10.4 rush attempts in this contest, on average: the most out of all quarterbacks.
Lamar Jackson isn't afraid to be involved in the run game, making up 30.8% of his team's carries this year, ranking in the 97th percentile among QBs.

Favors Under

The Ravens will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Lamar Jackson has run for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (58.0) this season than he did last season (66.0).
Lamar Jackson's running effectiveness has diminished this season, averaging a mere 5.81 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 7.94 rate last season.

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