Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Lamar Jackson

NFL · Player Props

Lamar Jackson

QB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 47.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 50.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Ravens to be the 4th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The projections expect Lamar Jackson to accumulate 9.4 carries in this game, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
Accounting for 30.4% of his team's rush attempts this year (97th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Lamar Jackson's mobility marks him as a serious threat in the run game.
Lamar Jackson has grinded out 66.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in football when it comes to QBs (97th percentile).

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Lamar Jackson's ground efficiency has worsened this season, totaling a measly 6.31 yards-per-carry compared to a 7.94 mark last season.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Cleveland's collection of LBs has been excellent since the start of last season, grading out as the 2nd-best in football.

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