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Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts

Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-104/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Ravens are a massive 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to accumulate 10.0 carries in this contest, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.

Lamar Jackson has averaged 63.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL among QBs (97th percentile).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

Lamar Jackson's ground effectiveness has diminished this season, compiling a measly 5.54 yards-per-carry vs a 7.94 figure last season.

The Indianapolis Colts defense boasts the 7th-best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, yielding just 4.33 yards-per-carry.

The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles profile as the 2nd-best DT corps in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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